How long will people work in the future?
The structural change driven by the technologies of the Fourth Industrial Revolution in general and automation in particular in the labor market has led policymakers and Statistics to show that there is growing concern about job disappearances, reduced working hours, and lower wages and the future of jobs. Structural change leads to the disappearance of some jobs that are no longer needed, but in return, more new jobs appear than those that were abolished, and working hours are also likely to decrease. Since the second industrial revolution, the number of annual working hours has gradually decreased, in contrast, labor productivity has risen nearly fourfold, and consumption and wages have risen. Productivity improvement appears to be the main driver, as there is a significant inverse correlation between working hours and productivity.
Working hours are constantly decreasing, albeit at a modest rate of slightly less than 0.5% each year. This pattern (the gradual disappearance of jobs) began in the early nineteenth century, and technological change helped to increase and improve labor productivity. This approach to reducing working hours is consistent with the approach used by most macroeconomists, that reducing working hours leads to better wages and productivity.
Over the past century, working hours have decreased in many countries. There are several possible drivers for this trend, including changing demand conditions, shifts in preferences over labor-leisure trade-offs, active pressure from trade unions, technological advances to improve workplace productivity, government introduction of maximum working hours’ legislation, and demographic changes in Men’s and women’s work style. It would be difficult to economically separate the relative importance of these various factors. Also, the econometric approach concludes that the family should have preferences such; That the effects of income and consumption are completely abolished — how do we explain the decreasing working hours, while consumption, productivity, and production grow steadily and at a significant rate? When working hours are reduced so people tend to increase the number of shopping time and consumption increases, and therefore there is an urgent need to increase productivity, and as a result producers make more profits.
Many commentators who offer a predictive vision of the future say that people should work fewer hours and give up a workaholic lifestyle. This perspective may also suggest that working hours are shared equally among the population to strive for a better work-life balance. Others offer a different view of the future, noting that as life expectancy continues to rise, workers will need to save more to fund their retirement. Hence some have suggested working part-time at one to fund future pensions. This may require rethinking retirement decisions and job offer choices throughout an individual’s entire life cycle.
Shortly, employees will work four days a week with the same workload and earn the same benefits and wages. Consequently, organizations that reduce their workweek with fewer meetings and employees will be able to work more independently. This is what has already started or will start partially or completely in several countries, including Belgium, Sweden, Germany, Spain, the UK, Scotland, Iceland, UAE, Netherlands, America, New Zealand, Japan, and Finland. The researchers found a decrease in the levels of worker stress and burnout, and they also indicated an improvement in the conditions of work-life balance, and that the experiment led to an improvement in the productivity of workers and an increase in their level of well-being or — at the very least — keeping them at their usual levels while working for fewer hours.
* Strategic Technology Advisor in Future Jobs, Industry 4.0, Artificial Intelligence, and Robotics.
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Resources:
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5. Tracy Brower, 70% Aren’t Prepared for The Future of Work: Demands for Upskilling Surge. Nov 6, 2022. https://www.forbes.com/sites/tracybrower/2022/11/06/70-arent-prepared-for-the-future-of-work-demands-for-upskilling-surge/?sh=166ec44e3b65 (Accessed 08 November 2022).
